Water vapor in the Stratosphere

The role of WV in the SP (SkS)

GISS

SCIENCE

Scientific American

Wunderground Blog (Masters)

Why xkcd "Cold" is unscientific, as well as "wrong on the Internet" updated May 12 2022

This blog is no longer updated.  This blog covers the following post and more.

We will proceed in a scientific manner.

Is the xkcd comic true? (reproduced with permission)

Mouse over text: 'You see the same pattern all over. Take Detroit--' 'Hold on. Why do you know all these statistics offhand?' 'Oh, um, no idea. I definitely spend my evenings hanging out with friends, and not curating a REALLY NEAT database of temperature statistics. Because, pshh, who would want to do that, right? Also, snowfall records.'

It's a complicated comic, with multiple claims, and it is used to deflect commentary and concerns by people, who notice when it's really cold. So, is any of it true?

None of the black hatted characters claims are true.  And the source the comic creator used is a biased web site that publishes deceptive "science", and is also wrong on the internet.

Looking at the winter trend for Missouri shows why people complaining about the cold In Missouri (and elsewhere) are not delusional,  While temperature data doesn't show the snow and ice, that data also shows the increase in cold winters.

The Tmin (minimum daily temperature) shows it clearly, colder winters.

Comparing with the Tmax confirms it is a trend

Since trends are sensitive at times to start times, here's the 30 year trend using 2014 as the end date.  (the comic was about Jan 2014)

A 30 year trend is solid evidence for climate trends, 

You can see the areas using the GISS maps, the twent year trend for Jan-Feb makes it obvious.

The trend shows up using Jan-Mar.  

It doesn't just seem like winters are getting colder in some cities, they actually are.  It's why the xkcd comic is wrong.

That's a shame, since I really like his work.

Solar influence on climate

From here

Figure 5.14 Changes in solar constant (total solar irradiance) and global mean temperature of Earth’s surface over the past 400 years. Except for a period of enhanced volcanic activity in the early 19th century, surface temperature is well correlated with solar variability. From Lean, personal communication.

Coldest January-March in the US Northeast. Ever

OK the coldest we have official data for.  Even so, it was record cold.

Here's the straighter dope, the Tmin data

Here's the average data

Here's the 30 year trend for Tmax

and for Tmin

And here is what it looks like using GISS

Here's the twenty year trend using GISS

And here it is using the NCDC data

This is most unexpected, unless you are Judah Cohen

Toronto also had it's coldest February ever,

Fred Hoyle had a great mind

Fred Hoyle discovered how stars work by thinking about the atomic bomb.

source 1

How can we know that Hansen 2006 was completely wrong? With the facts of course.

Skeptical Science blog post from 2010, shows Hansen 2006 (now removed from the current page), showing a graph and claiming the predictions were accurate.  Note the Scenario C purple line.

Woodfortrees graph using RSS land only is matched with the 2005 level, 7.7 anomaly.

It's now 10 years later, so we can look at the next 9 years of data, and compare with the prediction.  Hansen 2006 shows over 1,0 anomaly by now.  The blue line.

Here is what actually happened.

You can see why Skepticalscience no longer show you that image, the one they used in 2010.

How the ocean tides actually work

The real reason is this. The pull of gravity drops off rapidly with distance. Lunar gravity tugs on the side of the earth facing it a lot, on the earth itself a medium amount, and on the opposite side of the earth relatively little. In short, the far-side tide is a result of the moon attracting the earth, leaving the ocean behind. 

The straight dope

December 16, 1988

That isn't actually what is happening with our oceans and the tides. If interested, see here.

Another Trenberth travesty,

Another Trenberth travesty

In all storms, the main source of precipitation is the moisture already in the atmosphere at the start of the storm. This moisture, as water vapor, is gathered by the storm winds, brought into the storm, concentrated and precipitated out. Accordingly, if there is more moisture in the environment, it rains (or snows) harder.
How does this play out when temperatures are below freezing? Temperatures in the Goldilocks range of between about 28°F and 32°F, accompanied by moisture, mean more snow: indeed, the amount of snowfall at 32°F would be at least double that at 14°F.

paper

paper

"the extra snow can easily be order 10% or more"

Scott Adams vs the SGU

Scott Adams vs the Skeptic Guide to the Universe

Scott Adams blog post with challenge to SGU and comments

SGU forum threads one and two

This one could be interesting, since I could get involved in it.  Which would ruin my chances of avoiding bias and remaining objective.

(placeholder post, much more to the story)

It's hard to understand some things

Not everything can be made simple.  Some things require a lot of study before you can even follow the conversation.